Our Philosophy: Resilience Through Precision

In maritime and industrial operations, safety isn't just about avoiding accidents; it's the foundation of operational excellence. TickerGrade applies this same rigorous operational risk management framework to swing trading research.

We identify structural hazards—from shifting Macro tides to hidden volatility—and apply algorithmic safeguards to mitigate them as far as possible. By securing the downside first (Capital Preservation), we clear the path for reliable, sustainable Wealth Growth. We only provide a High Conviction data profile when the operational risks are managed and the quantitative data alignment is overwhelmingly favorable.

Inside the TickerGrade Terminal

The technical manual for understanding our 5-pillar quantitative model. Each pillar is weighted based on its historical correlation with 15-60 day swing trade outcomes. While we target medium-term swings, high-quality data profiles are valid for as little as 15 days to capture pre-earnings momentum runs.

Technical Structure

30% Weight (Primary Driver)

Precision matters. We go beyond basic charts by tracking RSI Divergence to spot trend reversals before they happen. We combine this with MACD and Volume Analysis to identify high-probability entry and exit points. The pillar starts at a neutral base of 5.0 and adjustments are applied from three independent sub-components. The final score is clamped to the range [0.0, 10.0].

1 — RSI Divergence & Momentum (14-Day)

Condition	Signal	Score Δ
Price Lower Low + RSI Higher Low	Bullish Divergence	+3.0
Price Higher High + RSI Lower High	Bearish Divergence	−3.0
No divergence · RSI 40–50	Neutral-Bullish	+1.5
No divergence · RSI 50–75	Momentum	+1.0
No divergence · RSI < 30	Oversold	+1.0
No divergence · RSI 30–40 or = 50	Neutral	0.0
No divergence · RSI > 75	Overextended	−1.5

Divergence detection uses a 30-day lookback window with order-5 peak/trough detection. When divergence is found, the flat RSI tier rules do not apply.

2 — MACD Crossover (12, 26, 9)

Condition	Signal	Score Δ
MACD line crosses above Signal line	Golden Cross	+2.5
MACD line above Signal (no fresh cross)	Above Signal	+1.5
MACD line crosses below Signal line	Death Cross	−2.0
MACD line below Signal (no fresh cross)	Below Signal	−1.0

MACD values are computed in absolute dollar terms. A crossover is detected by comparing the sign of the MACD−Signal spread on the current vs. prior candle.

3 — Volume & Green Day

Condition	Signal	Score Δ
Volume > 20-day SMA & price > prior close	Strong Buying	+1.5
Volume ≤ 20-day SMA (either direction)	Low Volume	0.0
Volume > 20-day SMA & price ≤ prior close	Heavy Selling	−0.5

Green Day is defined as: last price > prior day's official 4:00 PM ET close (regular session only, extended hours excluded). Volume SMA is computed from the previous 20 fully-settled sessions — the in-progress candle is excluded to match TradingView's consolidated baseline.

Theoretical range: Base 5.0. Maximum single-run adjustment: RSI +3.0, MACD +2.5, Volume +1.5 = 10.0 (capped). Worst case: RSI −3.0, MACD −2.0, Volume −0.5 = 0.0 (floored). All three sub-components are independent — divergence does not suppress the MACD or Volume adjustments.

Stop Loss Level & Risk/Reward Framework

Stop Loss Level — Average True Range (ATR)

The Stop Loss Level shown in the Risk/Reward card is calculated exclusively using the Average True Range (ATR) over 14 trading sessions. ATR measures the average daily price range of a stock, accounting for overnight gaps — giving a volatility-normalised stop that fits the stock's natural movement.

Stop Loss = Entry Price − (2.0 × ATR 14)

A multiplier of 2.0× gives the trade two full average daily ranges of breathing room before triggering — tight enough to be disciplined, wide enough to filter normal intraday noise.

Key Support Level (Pillar 1) — Separate Concept

The Key Support Level shown inside the Technical Structure pillar card is a separate data point: the 20-day lowest low — the lowest price the stock has actually traded over the past 20 sessions. It is a pure chart structure reference. It does not feed into the Stop Loss Level or any Risk/Reward calculation. The two numbers will sometimes be close, but they are computed independently and serve different analytical purposes.

Risk/Reward Ratio — Reading the 1:X Format

The ratio is expressed as 1:X, where 1 represents one unit of risk (the distance from entry to stop loss) and X is the reward multiple — how many units of that same risk you stand to capture at the target.

X = (Target − Entry) ÷ (Entry − Stop Loss)

A ratio of 1:3.0 means that for every $1 risked, the projected gain is $3. Industry standard for swing trades is a minimum of 1:2.0. TickerGrade's high-conviction entry threshold (score ≥ 8.0) is designed to target setups where this ratio is structurally sound.

Macro Liquidity

25% Weight (Market Environment)

Even the best ship sinks in a hurricane. We connect to the Federal Reserve (FRED) database and the US Treasury's live Fiscal Data API to track Live Liquidity on a daily basis — paired with a Dual-Credit Verification model combining two independent spread series to cross-validate market risk with institutional precision.

1. Live Liquidity Formula (Daily)

Live Liquidity = Manual Decay WALCL − Daily DTS TGA − Daily RRPONTSYD

Manual Decay WALCL: The Fed releases its balance sheet (WALCL) every Thursday via the H.4.1 report. Between weekly releases, TickerGrade applies a $3.1B/day linear decay to approximate the Fed's ongoing QT run-off — giving a real-time estimate rather than waiting for Thursday's snapshot.

Daily DTS TGA: The Treasury General Account balance is sourced fresh each day directly from the US Treasury's Fiscal Data API (Operating Cash Balance, DTS report). This replaces the old WTREGEN weekly FRED series with a more responsive daily feed. If the Treasury API is unavailable, the system automatically falls back to FRED WTREGEN.

Daily RRPONTSYD: Overnight Reverse Repo outstanding, sourced daily from FRED — unchanged from prior model.

We measure the day-over-day change in Live Liquidity to detect structural flows vs. noise. This daily delta sets the base score for the pillar.

Tier 1: Daily Change > −$25B (Normal Noise or Injection) → Base 8.0
Tier 2: Daily Change −$25B to −$50B (Liquidity Fade) → Base 5.5
Tier 3: Daily Change < −$50B (Liquidity Drain) → see Spread Shield + Tax Day Exception below

Spread Shield Override: If the daily drain breaches −$50B but the Broad OAS remains Tight (< 3.25%), the Tier-3 base is protected at 5.5 (Yellow). The Dual-Credit adjustment applies on top.

Tax Day Exception: Within ±10 calendar days of Jan 15, Apr 15, Jun 15, Sep 15, and Oct 15, large TGA draws are driven by quarterly estimated-tax remittances — a predictable seasonal one-off, not a structural liquidity crisis. During this window, a Tier-3 drain is automatically labelled Tax Day One-Off and capped at Yellow (5.5 base) provided the Broad OAS Spread Shield is still intact. If OAS ≥ 3.25% (Shield has failed), no Tax Day protection is applied and normal Tier-3 scoring resumes.

2. Dual-Credit Verification Model

Two independent credit spread series act as the "Market Truth" layer. Their combined score adjusts the liquidity base — up or down — to produce the final pillar score before TNX Gravity.

A. Broad OAS — ICE BofA US High Yield Index (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · Weight: Primary

Green: OAS < 3.25% → +1.0 pt (Risk On)
Yellow: OAS 3.25% – 4.25% → 0 pts (Neutral)
Red: OAS > 4.25% → −2.0 pts (Risk Off)

B. BB-Spread OAS — ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index (BAMLH0A1HYBB) · Institutional Scout

Tracks only BB-rated (highest-quality junk) bonds — the leading edge of institutional credit positioning. Sourced from FRED, same data family as the Broad OAS.

Green: BB-Spread OAS < 2.00% → +0.5 pt (Scout: Risk On)
Yellow: BB-Spread OAS 2.00% – 2.75% → 0 pts (Scout: Wait)
Red: BB-Spread OAS > 2.75% → −1.0 pt (Scout: Risk Off)

C. Institutional Divergence Overrides

Front-Run Detected (+0.5): Broad OAS > 3.25% (stressed) AND BB-Spread OAS < 2.00% (tight) — smart money accumulating while headlines stay fearful.
Exit Warning (−1.0): Broad OAS < 3.25% (calm) AND BB-Spread OAS > 2.25% (widening) — institutional capital exiting before the broad market reacts.

D. Velocity Penalty

If either spread widens rapidly over 10 trading days (Broad OAS slope > 0.02 or BB-Spread OAS slope > 0.015), an additional −1.5 pt penalty is applied to capture deterioration that absolute levels have not yet priced in.

3. TNX Gravity (10-Year Treasury Yield Pressure)

Rising long-term rates compress equity valuations by increasing the discount rate applied to future earnings. When $TNX enters elevated territory, a rate-pressure penalty is applied directly to the final Pillar 2 score on top of the OAS baseline — reflecting the real cost of capital for swing trades with 15–60 day horizons.

TNX ≤ 4.25% — No adjustment. Rate environment is accommodative for equities.
TNX > 4.25% and ≤ 4.50% — Caution Zone: −1.5 penalty applied to Pillar 2.
TNX > 4.50% — Danger Zone: −3.0 penalty applied to Pillar 2.

Forensic Transparency: When a TNX penalty is active, a forensic note is automatically appended to the Pillar 2 display for every stock audit, stating the penalty applied and the current yield level. OAS credit spread data continues to calculate live and independently.

Relative Value

15% Weight

Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Pillar 3 uses a 70/30 Hybrid Scoring Model that cross-references forward consensus expectations against trailing realized earnings to produce a hardened valuation score for 15-60 day swing trades.

Weighted Scoring Formula

Primary Metric (70%): Forward Consensus PEG — Sourced from Finnhub. Measures price-to-earnings relative to forward analyst growth estimates.

10/10 — PEG < 0.75 (Deep Value Growth)

8/10 — PEG 0.75 – 1.0 (Undervalued Growth)

5/10 — PEG 1.0 – 1.5 (Fair Value)

2/10 — PEG > 1.5 (Overvalued)

Secondary Metric (30%): Trailing PEG (TTM) — Calculated as P/E TTM divided by trailing EPS Growth YoY. Serves as a quality anchor against forward estimates.

Fallback: Uses P/S Ratio when PEG data is unavailable.

Quality Safety Rule

The terminal automatically deducts 1.5 points from the secondary component when the Trailing PEG exceeds 2.0 while the Forward PEG is under 1.0. This ensures that "Forward Hype" is always anchored by a historical quality check — if the market is pricing in aggressive growth that hasn't materialized in trailing earnings, the score reflects that structural risk.

Consolidated Intelligence Layer — Research Verdicts

Each analysis produces a single, prioritized Research Verdict based on the relationship between Forward PEG, Trailing PEG, and 52-week high proximity:

Divergence Alpha: Forward PEG < 50% of Trailing PEG. Forward growth expectations exceed historical realized earnings, suggesting institutional re-rating potential.

Growth Trap Alert: Forward PEG > 150% of Trailing PEG. Forward estimates imply significant growth deceleration. Structural multiple contraction risk detected.

Momentum/Value Conflict: >10% technical upside to 52W high AND Forward PEG > 1.5. Technical headroom exists, but fundamental multiple suggests premium risk.

High-Conviction Momentum: <5% below 52W high AND Forward PEG < 1.0. Trading near highs, but Forward PEG confirms valuation remains historically attractive.

*Price-Discovery Distortion Window: For 1-5 days following an earnings announcement, valuation metrics may be temporarily distorted as the market digests new information. A caution note will appear on the dashboard during this settling period.

Institutional Gravity & Index Weighting

A stock's membership — and weight — inside benchmark ETFs creates structural institutional demand that is independent of its fundamental story. TickerGrade quantifies this "gravity" and applies a modifier to the Relative Value pillar score so that forced-buying tailwinds and forced-selling headwinds are reflected in the final confidence grade. Coverage spans large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap universes to avoid systematic bias against any market tier.

Data Sources (refreshed daily)

IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) — exact constituent weights from the public BlackRock holdings CSV feed (~500 large-cap equities).
QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) — constituent weights derived from the Nasdaq-100 market-cap API (market-cap share of total, a close proxy for QQQ's modified-cap methodology, ~100 growth equities).
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) — exact constituent weights from the public BlackRock holdings CSV feed (~2,000 small-cap equities). Added to protect small-cap stocks from being misclassified as illiquid off-index names.
IWB (iShares Russell 1000 ETF) — exact constituent weights from the public BlackRock holdings CSV feed (~1,000 large- and mid-cap equities). Bridges the gap between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 — ensuring mid-cap growth names tracked by the Russell 1000 are never incorrectly flagged as Isolated Assets.

Tier Classification

At each daily refresh, TickerGrade computes the 90th-percentile weight threshold separately for IVV, QQQ, IWM, and IWB. A stock is "Market General" if its weight in any of those four indexes meets or exceeds that index's threshold — ensuring the bonus is calibrated peer-to-peer rather than by absolute weight.

▲ Market General — Top 10% by weight in at least one index

+1.0 Stability Bonus applied when the valuation signal is not "Overvalued." Stocks in the top decile of their index face continuous re-buying during rebalances and ETF inflows — a structural bid that reduces single-name tail risk over swing-trade horizons. Bonus withheld for overvalued names since a stretched multiple offsets the institutional flow advantage.

● Standard Member — present in at least one index, not Top 10%

No modifier. The stock carries meaningful but not dominant institutional ownership — passive flows are present but neither a significant tailwind nor headwind on 15-60 day timeframes. This tier covers the vast majority of S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000 constituents.

▼ Isolated Asset — absent from S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000

−1.0 Liquidity Penalty applied. A stock missing from all four major passive vehicles receives no forced institutional bid from index rebalancing. In broad market drawdowns there is no rebalancing floor and no ETF-driven buyer. Illiquidity risk, wider bid/ask spreads, and idiosyncratic volatility are structurally elevated — compressing risk-adjusted return profiles regardless of how attractive the fundamental picture appears.

Score mechanics: The Gravity modifier is applied after the base Relative Value score is computed. The final Pillar 3 score is always clamped between 1.0 and 10.0. When a modifier is active, the Relative Value card displays an Institutional Gravity row showing the tier, index membership, ETF weights (S&P500 / NDX / R2K / R1K), and the exact point adjustment applied.

Insider & Analyst Conviction

20% Weight (Smart Money + Street Consensus)

TickerGrade follows the money AND the street. We blend SEC Form 4 insider filings (50% weight) with Wall Street analyst consensus (50% weight) for a comprehensive conviction score.

Formula: Total Score = (Insider Base × 0.5) + (Analyst Catalyst × 0.5)

The Core Data Profile

We scan SEC Form 4 filings for Open Market Purchases (Code P) and Open Market Sales (Code S). We ignore automatic grants (A), option exercises (M), and gifts (G) to focus purely on intentional market activity. Purchases drive the conviction score, while sales feed the Insider Friction Penalty to detect supply overhang from Officer/Director exits. A minimum Magnitude Filter ensures only purchase transactions exceeding $10K or 5% position increase are counted toward the buy signal.

Time-Decay Model (45-Day Lookback)

Not all buys are created equal. Aligned to our 15-60 day Inter-Quarter swing window, we apply time-decay weighting to recent filings:

1.0x0-7 Days: Maximum urgency. Peak conviction window.

0.9x8-14 Days: Strong recent activity.

0.7x15-30 Days: Trend support with moderate decay.

0.3x30+ Days: Baseline context only.

72-Hour Priority: Filings within 72 hours of analysis receive a +0.25 recency boost (max +0.5) when the base score is already strong.

Identity Collapse Engine

Corporate insiders often hold shares through multiple affiliated vehicles—LLCs, limited partnerships, family trusts, and holding companies. Without intelligence, each entity appears as a separate "buyer," creating Ghost Signals that inflate conviction scores.

TickerGrade's Identity Collapse Engine solves this by extracting the natureOfOwnership field from each Form 4 XML filing to identify indirect ownership structures. All affiliated vehicles are grouped under the primary Director or Officer's canonical name.

Example: A Director buying through 6 separate LLCs (Seidman & Associates LLC, Seidman Investment Partnership LP, Broad Park Investors LLC, etc.) counts as 1 unique buyer, not 6.

The dashboard displays the entity count ("via N entities") for full transparency.

Analyst Multiplier (The Consensus Check)

When high-conviction insider buying (Score 10.0) aligns with a "Strong Buy" consensus from Wall Street analysts, a +0.5 Multiplier Bonus is applied.

This identifies Alpha Divergence: the rare moment when the people who know the company best (Insiders) and the people who study the sector best (Analysts) are in total, aggressive agreement.

Analyst Catalyst (50% of Pillar Score)

Uses Finnhub Recommendation Trends data to score Wall Street consensus on a 0-10 scale.

Strong Buy = 10, Buy = 8, Hold = 5, Sell = 2, Strong Sell = 0

Weighted average of last 3 months of analyst recommendations.

Momentum Bonus: If analyst sentiment improved month-over-month (+0.5 point shift), a +1.0 bonus is applied. If sentiment declined, a -1.0 penalty is applied.

Fallback: If no analyst data exists, defaults to 5.0 (Neutral), letting the Insider Base carry the weight.

Insider Base Score Tiers (50% of Pillar Score)

Cluster Buy (10.0): 3+ unique canonical insiders making open market purchases within 14 days. Highest conviction data profile.

Executive Buy (8.5): CEO or CFO making a purchase > $50,000 in the last 60 days. Strong conviction data profile.

Steel Floor (8.0): 2+ unique canonical insiders buying within 14 days. Support level detected.

Extended Exec Buy (7.0): CEO or CFO purchase > $50K within 180 days with time-decay applied.

Director Buy (6.4): Director-level open market purchase detected. Moderate conviction.

Neutral (5.0): No significant open market insider activity detected within the lookback window.

Massive Sell (2.0 – 2.9): 2+ insiders selling > $1M total in the last 30 days. OVERRIDES all bullish data profiles. Score fades toward neutral as the signal ages — see Signal Fading below.

Signal Fading Engine

A score that snaps instantly from its peak to neutral the moment a filing exits a lookback window creates a false cliff — the same data was fully priced in yesterday but worth nothing today. The Signal Fading Engine prevents this by progressively discounting signals as they age, using the same time-decay multipliers applied to individual transaction weighting.

Whale Conviction — Buy-Side Fade (8.5 → 5.0)

When a 10% owner or founder-level insider makes a large open-market purchase, the signal starts at a peak of 8.5. As the purchase ages, the score fades toward the neutral baseline of 5.0 using the decay formula:

Score = 5.0 + (8.5 − 5.0) × decay

×1.0

0–7d → 8.5

×0.9

8–14d → 8.2

×0.7

15–30d → 7.5

×0.3

31+d → 6.1

Massive Sell — Sell-Side Fade (2.0 → 5.0)

Symmetrical with the buy-side. The signal starts at a floor of 2.0 when 2+ insiders sell >$1M within 30 days. As the most recent sell ages, the score lifts toward neutral. Sells cannot exceed 30 days old — the transaction-date gate handles hard expiry, and the fading handles the gradual reset before that:

Score = 5.0 − (5.0 − 2.0) × decay

×1.0

0–7d → 2.0

×0.9

8–14d → 2.3

×0.7

15–30d → 2.9

When a Signal Fading row appears on the Insider & Analyst Conviction card, the score has already been adjusted. Hovering the row reveals the exact multiplier and days-since-last-activity.

Conviction Signals

When specific patterns are detected, the dashboard surfaces a color-coded conviction badge on the Insider card:

Cluster Buy

3+ unique insiders buying within 14 days. The strongest organic conviction pattern. Score: 10.0

Steel Floor

2+ unique insiders buying within 14 days. Insiders are defending a price level. Score: 8.0

Whale Conviction

A 10% Owner or Founder purchasing >$1M in open market stock. Indicates deep institutional-level conviction from a major stakeholder. Score: 8.5

Whale Magnitude

Any single canonical identity accumulating $500K+ in open market purchases within 30 days. Applies a +1.5 bonus to the insider base score (capped at 10.0), regardless of role type. Entity vehicles are displayed for transparency.

Insider Friction Penalty (Supply Overhang)

Even when insiders are buying, heavy selling by other Officers or Directors can create a "supply ceiling" that limits upside potential. TickerGrade detects this contested boardroom sentiment by scanning for cumulative 30-day sales by individual Officers and Directors.

$5M+ Cumulative Sales: Friction Penalty of -1.0 applied to the Insider Base score.

$10M+ Cumulative Sales: Friction Penalty of -2.0 applied to the Insider Base score.

The penalty is applied after all bonuses (Whale Magnitude, 72-Hour Recency) are calculated, ensuring the friction reflects the net conviction picture.

Non-Stacking Rule: When a Massive Sell override is already active, the Friction Penalty is absorbed rather than stacked. The Supply Overhang is still displayed for transparency, but the score is not reduced further—the Massive Sell override already captures the bearish sentiment.

Event Risk

10% Weight

We hate surprises. The system checks the earnings calendar to protect you from binary volatility events.

Calendar Risk: If earnings are due within 15 days, we lock the score to 'Wait'.

Data Sources

Provided 'As-Is' for technical analysis only.