Our Philosophy: Resilience Through Precision
In maritime and industrial operations, safety isn't just about avoiding accidents; it's the foundation of operational excellence. TickerGrade applies this same rigorous operational risk management framework to swing trading research.
We identify structural hazards—from shifting Macro tides to hidden volatility—and apply algorithmic safeguards to mitigate them as far as possible. By securing the downside first (Capital Preservation), we clear the path for reliable, sustainable Wealth Growth. We only provide a High Conviction data profile when the operational risks are managed and the quantitative data alignment is overwhelmingly favorable.
Inside the TickerGrade Terminal
The technical manual for understanding our 5-pillar quantitative model. Each pillar is weighted based on its historical correlation with 15-60 day swing trade outcomes. While we target medium-term swings, high-quality data profiles are valid for as little as 15 days to capture pre-earnings momentum runs.
Technical Structure
30% Weight (Primary Driver)Precision matters. We go beyond basic charts by tracking RSI Divergence to spot trend reversals before they happen. We combine this with MACD and Volume Analysis to identify high-probability entry and exit points.
RSI Divergence: Bullish = Price Lower Low + RSI Higher Low. Bearish = Price Higher High + RSI Lower High.
MACD (12,26,9): Golden Cross = +2.5, Death Cross = -2.0. Uses absolute dollar calculation.
Volume: Bullish if Volume > 20-Day SMA on green days.
Macro Liquidity
25% Weight (Market Environment)Even the best ship sinks in a hurricane. We connect directly to the Federal Reserve (FRED) database to track Net Liquidity and Credit Spreads using a 3-Tier system with an intelligent "Spread Shield" to filter false alarms.
1. Fed Net Liquidity (WALCL - WTREGEN - RRPONTSYD)
We measure the week-over-week change in Net Liquidity to detect structural flows vs. noise.
- Green: Weekly Change > -$25B (Normal Noise or Injection) = Bullish (+2.5 pts)
- Yellow: Weekly Change between -$25B and -$50B (Liquidity Fade) = Neutral (+0.5 pts)
- Red: Weekly Change < -$50B (Liquidity Drain) = Bearish (-2.0 pts)
The Spread Shield Override: If Liquidity drops < -$50B but Credit Spreads remain Tight (< 3.00%), the score is capped at Yellow. We prioritize market resilience over raw liquidity data.
2. Credit Spreads (ICE BofA High Yield Index)
Absolute levels serve as the "Market Truth" to validate or veto liquidity data profiles.
- Green: Spread < 3.50% = Risk On (+1.5 pts)
- Yellow: Spread 3.50% - 4.50% = Neutral (0 pts)
- Red: Spread > 4.50% = Risk Off (-2.5 pts)
- Velocity Penalty: If 10-day slope > 0.02 (rapid widening), apply additional -1.5 pts
3. TNX Gravity (10-Year Treasury Yield Pressure)
Rising long-term rates compress equity valuations by increasing the discount rate applied to future earnings. When $TNX enters elevated territory, a rate-pressure penalty is applied directly to the final Pillar 2 score on top of the OAS baseline — reflecting the real cost of capital for swing trades with 15–60 day horizons.
- TNX ≤ 4.25% — No adjustment. Rate environment is accommodative for equities.
- TNX > 4.25% and ≤ 4.50% — Caution Zone: −1.5 penalty applied to Pillar 2.
- TNX > 4.50% — Danger Zone: −3.0 penalty applied to Pillar 2.
Forensic Transparency: When a TNX penalty is active, a forensic note is automatically appended to the Pillar 2 display for every stock audit, stating the penalty applied and the current yield level. OAS credit spread data continues to calculate live and independently.
Relative Value
15% WeightPrice is what you pay; value is what you get. Pillar 3 uses a 70/30 Hybrid Scoring Model that cross-references forward consensus expectations against trailing realized earnings to produce a hardened valuation score for 15-60 day swing trades.
Weighted Scoring Formula
Primary Metric (70%): Forward Consensus PEG — Sourced from Finnhub. Measures price-to-earnings relative to forward analyst growth estimates.
10/10 — PEG < 0.75 (Deep Value Growth)
8/10 — PEG 0.75 – 1.0 (Undervalued Growth)
5/10 — PEG 1.0 – 1.5 (Fair Value)
2/10 — PEG > 1.5 (Overvalued)
Secondary Metric (30%): Trailing PEG (TTM) — Calculated as P/E TTM divided by trailing EPS Growth YoY. Serves as a quality anchor against forward estimates.
Fallback: Uses P/S Ratio when PEG data is unavailable.
Quality Safety Rule
The terminal automatically deducts 1.5 points from the secondary component when the Trailing PEG exceeds 2.0 while the Forward PEG is under 1.0. This ensures that "Forward Hype" is always anchored by a historical quality check — if the market is pricing in aggressive growth that hasn't materialized in trailing earnings, the score reflects that structural risk.
Consolidated Intelligence Layer — Research Verdicts
Each analysis produces a single, prioritized Research Verdict based on the relationship between Forward PEG, Trailing PEG, and 52-week high proximity:
Divergence Alpha: Forward PEG < 50% of Trailing PEG. Forward growth expectations exceed historical realized earnings, suggesting institutional re-rating potential.
Growth Trap Alert: Forward PEG > 150% of Trailing PEG. Forward estimates imply significant growth deceleration. Structural multiple contraction risk detected.
Momentum/Value Conflict: >10% technical upside to 52W high AND Forward PEG > 1.5. Technical headroom exists, but fundamental multiple suggests premium risk.
High-Conviction Momentum: <5% below 52W high AND Forward PEG < 1.0. Trading near highs, but Forward PEG confirms valuation remains historically attractive.
*Price-Discovery Distortion Window: For 1-5 days following an earnings announcement, valuation metrics may be temporarily distorted as the market digests new information. A caution note will appear on the dashboard during this settling period.
Insider & Analyst Conviction
20% Weight (Smart Money + Street Consensus)TickerGrade follows the money AND the street. We blend SEC Form 4 insider filings (50% weight) with Wall Street analyst consensus (50% weight) for a comprehensive conviction score.
Formula: Total Score = (Insider Base × 0.5) + (Analyst Catalyst × 0.5)
The Core Data Profile
We scan SEC Form 4 filings for Open Market Purchases (Code P) and Open Market Sales (Code S). We ignore automatic grants (A), option exercises (M), and gifts (G) to focus purely on intentional market activity. Purchases drive the conviction score, while sales feed the Insider Friction Penalty to detect supply overhang from Officer/Director exits. A minimum Magnitude Filter ensures only purchase transactions exceeding $10K or 5% position increase are counted toward the buy signal.
Time-Decay Model (45-Day Lookback)
Not all buys are created equal. Aligned to our 15-60 day Inter-Quarter swing window, we apply time-decay weighting to recent filings:
72-Hour Priority: Filings within 72 hours of analysis receive a +0.25 recency boost (max +0.5) when the base score is already strong.
Identity Collapse Engine
Corporate insiders often hold shares through multiple affiliated vehicles—LLCs, limited partnerships, family trusts, and holding companies. Without intelligence, each entity appears as a separate "buyer," creating Ghost Signals that inflate conviction scores.
TickerGrade's Identity Collapse Engine solves this by extracting the natureOfOwnership field from each Form 4 XML filing to identify indirect ownership structures. All affiliated vehicles are grouped under the primary Director or Officer's canonical name.
Example: A Director buying through 6 separate LLCs (Seidman & Associates LLC, Seidman Investment Partnership LP, Broad Park Investors LLC, etc.) counts as 1 unique buyer, not 6.
The dashboard displays the entity count ("via N entities") for full transparency.
Analyst Multiplier (The Consensus Check)
When high-conviction insider buying (Score 10.0) aligns with a "Strong Buy" consensus from Wall Street analysts, a +0.5 Multiplier Bonus is applied.
This identifies Alpha Divergence: the rare moment when the people who know the company best (Insiders) and the people who study the sector best (Analysts) are in total, aggressive agreement.
Analyst Catalyst (50% of Pillar Score)
Uses Finnhub Recommendation Trends data to score Wall Street consensus on a 0-10 scale.
Strong Buy = 10, Buy = 8, Hold = 5, Sell = 2, Strong Sell = 0
Weighted average of last 3 months of analyst recommendations.
Momentum Bonus: If analyst sentiment improved month-over-month (+0.5 point shift), a +1.0 bonus is applied. If sentiment declined, a -1.0 penalty is applied.
Fallback: If no analyst data exists, defaults to 5.0 (Neutral), letting the Insider Base carry the weight.
Insider Base Score Tiers (50% of Pillar Score)
Cluster Buy (10.0): 3+ unique canonical insiders making open market purchases within 14 days. Highest conviction data profile.
Executive Buy (8.5): CEO or CFO making a purchase > $50,000 in the last 60 days. Strong conviction data profile.
Steel Floor (8.0): 2+ unique canonical insiders buying within 14 days. Support level detected.
Extended Exec Buy (7.0): CEO or CFO purchase > $50K within 180 days with time-decay applied.
Director Buy (6.4): Director-level open market purchase detected. Moderate conviction.
Neutral (5.0): No significant open market insider activity detected within the lookback window.
Massive Sell (2.0): 2+ insiders selling > $1M total in the last 30 days. OVERRIDES all bullish data profiles.
Conviction Signals
When specific patterns are detected, the dashboard surfaces a color-coded conviction badge on the Insider card:
Cluster Buy
3+ unique insiders buying within 14 days. The strongest organic conviction pattern. Score: 10.0
Steel Floor
2+ unique insiders buying within 14 days. Insiders are defending a price level. Score: 8.0
Whale Conviction
A 10% Owner or Founder purchasing >$1M in open market stock. Indicates deep institutional-level conviction from a major stakeholder. Score: 8.5
Whale Magnitude
Any single canonical identity accumulating $500K+ in open market purchases within 30 days. Applies a +1.5 bonus to the insider base score (capped at 10.0), regardless of role type. Entity vehicles are displayed for transparency.
Insider Friction Penalty (Supply Overhang)
Even when insiders are buying, heavy selling by other Officers or Directors can create a "supply ceiling" that limits upside potential. TickerGrade detects this contested boardroom sentiment by scanning for cumulative 30-day sales by individual Officers and Directors.
$5M+ Cumulative Sales: Friction Penalty of -1.0 applied to the Insider Base score.
$10M+ Cumulative Sales: Friction Penalty of -2.0 applied to the Insider Base score.
The penalty is applied after all bonuses (Whale Magnitude, 72-Hour Recency) are calculated, ensuring the friction reflects the net conviction picture.
Non-Stacking Rule: When a Massive Sell override is already active, the Friction Penalty is absorbed rather than stacked. The Supply Overhang is still displayed for transparency, but the score is not reduced further—the Massive Sell override already captures the bearish sentiment.
Event Risk
10% WeightWe hate surprises. The system checks the earnings calendar to protect you from binary volatility events.
Calendar Risk: If earnings are due within 15 days, we lock the score to 'Wait'.